Kebir, Oussama ; Nouaouri, Issam ; Rejeb, Lilia ; Ben Said, Lamjed
Contributor:Wiśniewski, Remigiusz - ed. ; Gomes, Luis - ed. ; Wan, Shaohua - ed.
Title:ATiPreTA: An analytical model for time-dependent prediction of terrorist attacks
Subtitle: Group publication title: Subject and Keywords:terrorist attacks ; attack classification ; mathematical modeling ; dynamic behavior simulation ; damage prediction
Abstract:In counter-terrorism actions, commanders are confronted with difficult and important challenges. Their decision-making processes follow military instructions and must consider the humanitarian aspect of the mission. In this paper, we aim to respond to the question: "What would the casualties be if governmental forces reacted in a given way with given resources?" Within a similar context, decision-support systems are required due to the variety and complexity of modern attacks as well as the enormous quantity of information that must be treated in real time. ; The majority of mathematical models are not suitable for real-time events. Therefore, we propose an analytical model for a time-dependent prediction of terrorist attacks (ATiPreTA). The output of our model is consistent with casualty data from two important terrorist events known in Tunisia: Bardo and Sousse attacks. The sensitivity and experimental analyses show that the results are significant. Some operational insights are also discussed.
Publisher:Zielona Góra: Uniwersytet Zielonogórski
Date: Resource Type: DOI: Pages: Source:AMCS, volume 32, number 3 (2022) ; click here to follow the link
Language: License CC BY 4.0: Rights: